Alternative
energy sources, advantages and drawbacks.
Need to review how long we can go with fossil fuels.
Current
human world population is 6.69 billion, and keeps on increasing specially in
Asian countries. By
2050, global demand for energy could double, driven by a rising population
which is expected to reach 9 billion. Even with intense investment in all
energy sources - from oil and natural gas, to bio-fuels, nuclear power, solar
and wind - it will be extremely tough for the world to keep pace with rising
demand.
Pakistan
is currently the sixth most densely populated country in the world and is on
its way to having the fourth largest population by 2050. Energy consumption
would be four times what is used in Pakistan today. Finding new sources of
energy is vital to keep pace with demand and fueling economic progress.
Fossil fuels:
As we know, there are three
major forms of fossil fuels: coal, oil and natural
gas. Need to be discussed, the
sources where they came from and how fast we are consuming them and how long we
can go with fossil fuel, is important to save our future. Fossil fuel were formed many hundreds of
millions of years ago before the time of the dinosaurs called the Carboniferous Period.
Importance of knowledge on Geological history of formation of
Fossil Fuels.
In
case of oil and Gas deposits, to improve reservoir predictability, it requires
a better understanding of the complex depositional environment and facies, the
structural control on sedimentation and subsequent trapping interval and the
effects of the inter-bedded volcanic deposits on reservoir characteristics (detail
discussion is beyond the objective of the heading however a little awareness of
it among the youth is the need of time).
So
in case of Coal, without detailed knowledge of Geological history of formation
of specific coal deposit, any attempt of extraction and its onward utilization may
lead to miss-planning and cause failure or delay of project and extended loss of money.(e.g the geology and quality of coal deposits of USA
and Australia are different from the various coal deposits of Russia, China or
India ).
let us share the information about our home
the Earth( Pakistan
cannot remain isolated).The earth was different in the distant past
due to plate tectonics and all the continents were once all together forming a
Super continent PANGEA .
Related Videos:
Video-I
video-II
Earth's continents during the Carboniferous Period were
arranged differently than they are today which can be observed from above video.
Coal Beds of the Carboniferous Period:
How the World Looked when they were Deposited
Early
coal deposits
of the world which underwent geological and chemical changes with the
continental drift.
coal deposits
of the world which underwent geological and chemical changes with the
continental drift.
Brief about Carboniferous Period:
Carboniferous period
occurred from about 360 to 286 million years ago. At the
time, the land was covered with swamps filled with huge trees, ferns and other large leafy plants.
The water and seas were
filled with algae - the green stuff that
forms on a stagnant pool of water shown below. Algae is actually millions of
very small plants.
The above photo is specifically chosen to bring
to light the current Algae-based bio-fuel technology
discussed below.
Some deposits of coal can be found during the time of the
dinosaurs, during the late Cretaceous Period (65
million years ago).
But the main deposits of
fossil fuels are from the Carboniferous Period.
i)Formation of Oil and Gas Deposits:
Petroleum
source rocks formed at sea, usually in mud that washed offshore (forming shale) or in limestone. A thick rain of dead plank tonic
algae adds organic remains to this sediment.
Oil and gas started out as tiny organisms in
ancient, shallow seas. Over millions of years, the remains of these organisms
piled up. As layer upon layer of sediment accumulated and consolidated, the
resulting pressure gradually created a type of sedimentary rock known as oil shale. A lot of oil shale can be found in the world today and it is possible
to distill oil from these rocks. However, extraction of oil from oil shale is
expensive.
Before
dead organic matter becomes petroleum or gas it exists as a material called kerogen.
Kerogen ( l / ll) is a family of solid terrestrial sedimentary materials
essentially made of C, H and O interlocked in a disordered, more or less aliphatic,
structure.
With time in the ground, kerogen matures into an assortment
of hydrocarbon molecules of all sizes and weights. The lightest (smallest) hydrocarbon molecules waft away as natural
gas, and the heavier (larger) ones make up an
oily liquid.
In
some places, oil in the shale migrated out and gradually floated upwards
through water-saturated layers of sedimentary rock. Whenever that oil reached
an impervious surface that prevented further movement, an oil (petroleum)
deposits were formed like under Arab Peninsula. Most of the oil and gas we
extract come from such deposits.
An educational animation explaining the
formation of a oil deposit.
Related video:
Jim Conors, Professor at the University of
South Alabama, discusses the occurrence of oil and gas in the Gulf of Mexico
ii) Formation of Coal Deposits:
Coal
is similar to oil in that it originally came from living organisms. In the case
of coal, though, those living organisms were plants in marshy
areas.
Over
time, the decayed plants created a layer of peat,
which is a soft spongy material. Over millions of years, sediment covered the
peat and pressure and temperature gradually converted it to coal.
In both the above settings of Oil/ Gas or Coal, the mixture is buried under
conditions of no
atmospheric oxygen.
Oil, Gas and Coal are called “ fossil” fuels
because they came from the remains of ancient plants and plankton(microscopic
organisms).
We are using up the fossil
fuels that took more than 300 million years to form. Once
they are gone they are gone and are not renewable within a human life span.
Therefore, once we consume all the available deposits there will be none left
for future generations.
WORLD’s ESTIMATED RESERVES OF FOSSIL FUELS:
As per recent report dated March 2012
Thar Coal Deposits:
The
above plot is needed to be modified. Pakistan’s Thar coal deposits have not
been included in the above reserves of coal which have been estimated as total
of 175 billion tons, accomplishment of which Pakistanis are
awaiting for quite a long time, need to be discussed separately.
Shale Gase reserves:
Worldwide
Shale Gase reserves including Pakistan’s 50 trillion cubic
feet of Shale gas reserves, have already been brought to light. Please
refer the following link.
Country vise Proven & Unproven Fossil Fuel
Energy Reserves.
Canadian Oil sands or tar sands Reserves:
Oil sands, or tar sands as the Canadians call them, are
sedimentary rocks and sands that contain very thick, almost solid petroleum.
The US has no oil sands, almost all of the world's deposits
are in Canada, specifically Alberta and Saskatchewan. Currently, they are
mining these and this is where Canada gets most of their oil from today. The
oil sands have resources of over 12 trillion barrels and place Canada second (barely)
behind the Saudi's.
Canada Tar sands reserves:
Uncertainties
in estimated reserves and resources.
There
are uncertainties in estimated reserves and resources, some of which may not be
economically recoverable with current technologies and energy prices like under
mentioned.
As
per reports there are probably oil and gas reserves under the Antarctic
continent but the Antarctic Treaty forbids drilling. Energy hungry
nations on the other side are moving north. About a quarter of all oil reserves
are said to lie north of the Arctic Circle .
Artic’ methane gas
Alaska:
Arctic's crude oil resrves
Methane Hydrates:
Video-i
Methane the Undersea fuel of the future:
video-ii
World current energy
consumption by source. “Renewables” are solar, geothermal, wind, and
biomass. Data from the BP Statistical Review.
BP Energy Outlook 2030 - Global Energy Future Trends.
London January 2012.
It
identifies long-term energy trends, building on Statistical Review of World
Energy, and then develops projections for world energy markets to 2030, taking
account of the potential evolution of the world economy, policy, and
technology. Pakistan cannot remain isolated.
Total global Electricity
production by source is shown in Figure below. World electricity production by fuel type. Renewables (defined by AGW activists as solar-, geothermal-, wind-,
and biomass-generated electricity, but not hydroelectricity) are 2.7% of the total electricity use.
Data from National Geographic.
CONCLUSION:
The
human being would have to use the above mentioned huge amount of fossil fuels in the period started
from industrial revolution 1850 to 2050
in order to develop and convert into a current high tech. society and then the role of fossil
fuel seems to be diminishing and will almost be finished by 2100.
Because fossil fuels are nonrenewable, the
price for oil, gas, coal and other natural resources will naturally further
rise in future as supplies begin to diminish, making things worse which can be
now severely felt in countries like Pakistan.
The human has to find new resources of
renewable and cleaned energy to survive on the planet Earth that should be long
lasting.
Circular debt and line losses are the biggest problems of Pakistan which ultimately
contribute to the increasing load-shedding. Why Circular debt keeps on
increasing, needs to be discussed separately.
To preserve a good future for young people and future
generations, short or no time has left for Pakistan, heavily depends on
expensive imports.
Alternative Options, Advantages and Drawbacks.
1) Bio-fuels:
Bio-fuels
can be produced from any biological carbon source. It involves absorbing the
energy of the sun to grow biological material and then harvesting that material
for fuel. Trees, switch grass, sugar cane, grain, root crops, palm oil, animal
fats, algae or bacteria have all been proposed or used as fuel biomass.
There are merits and
demerits depending on agriculture for fuel. Will its use displace food crops?
Can growing biomass improve and reclaim agricultural land?
If bio-fuel is to be
used as a renewable fuel then the energy used to manufacture it, should be less
than the fuel supplies to an end user. There needs to be a net gain in energy,
otherwise it is no longer renewable. Some of the limitations of using biomass
are: how much Biomass is being used around the world and to what extent it can
meet human needs.
However
Algae bio-fuel is something that is
currently receiving lot of attention and Americans consider this as one of the
most promising bio-fuel technologies that would significantly reduce their dependence
on fossil fuels in future.
Algae are naturally growing
organisms and are very diverse in nature. Different algae strains have
different properties. Since the major concern is to choose such an algae strain
which is easily available in the location, can multiply easily at the
prescribed location and has maximum quantity of lipid/oil content in it so that
it can be used to produce biodiesel. Algae absorb carbon dioxide and nutrients
from the water and make oil out of their biomass, while producing oxygen. Algae
are single cell organisms and they reproduce by dividing themselves into two
cells, grow bigger and divide again.
Since algae growth needs
large amounts of sunlight, brackish water and carbon dioxide. Those conditions
are typical in the costal regions that makes algae the best
long-term feedstock for biodiesel.
Bio fuels from Algae:
President Obama announces Algae projects:
Related Videos;
The following video provides the introductory
information about algae and shows the involvement of US youth in national
energy programs ( Algae narrated by Noah Engel, Wydown Middle School in St. Louis).
In
the USA, Aurora and Sapphire and Exon
Mobile are putting millions and millions into algae research and also Australians at James Cook University of Queensland
spending millions on Algae research. Both USA and Australia have vast land so they do not have the restriction of
depletion of agricultural land. They both are going to make some great break through
in Algae Bio Technology to produce Bio fuels soon. Let us share the
information presented in following Videos ( Please skip the adds if any).
Bio fuels from Algae Project in USA.
High Density Vertical BioReactor USA.
Algae Research and Development Facility at James Cook University
Townsville Queensland Australia.
Turning algae into Oil the NASA way.
2) Solar Energy:
Sunlight is a widespread
source of energy that is free and available to everyone. Solar Energy is also
renewable and non-polluting. So why isn’t everybody using solar energy right
now?
Solar
Fastest Growing Industry in America
As
per report by the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
USA, states that the price for switching to solar in the U.S. has, on average,
decreased dramatically through 2010 and the first half of 2011. Solar advocates
applaud these findings as the latest indicator that solar is ready to power
America’s new energy economy..
THIN FILM SOLAR PV PANELS:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=BKsOpDSRl50
Thin film photovoltaic cell ( low-cost ) has lower conversion
efficiency than that of traditional high price crystalline silicon (polysilicon)
photovoltaic cell.
New Efficient Designs in Solar Panels have been introduced:
SolarBeam Concentrator - Parabolic Solar
Concentrator Dish.
German
policy obout Solar Power.
Despite
the great potential of Solar PV, current cost and efficiency of solar panels
makes them green for rich countries, up till now expensive, alternative to
conventional ways of generating electricity, such as Coal, Gas and Oil operated
power plants, as well as Nuclear and Hydro electricity, which is obvious from
the under mentioned plot.
The above comparative
cost analysis plot is one year old but still can be used effectively for our
ongoing discussion to reach a conclusion. Specifically when one consider the required
investments for really massive scale photo-voltaic,
one come up to the conclusion that this
is a very long shot. The energy investment to build photo-voltaic cells
shouldn’t be underestimated. For small scale it is not very pertinent, but if
we think of scales in the order of many Mega Watts it becomes a constraint.
The above data is not
showing the true reflection of the per capita income of 95% of Pakistanis
which is less than $ 1000.
The
limitation for Pakistan to take on solar energy in national grid is the above
low per capita income of below average Pakistanis who could not afford high
energy bills like citizens of USA or GERMANY. The electricity
bills in Germany are almost double than USA but are still affordable for
average German citizen.
Cost/kw/hr and payback periods.
The
main obstacle that is holding the wide-spread of solar PV is the long ROI
(return on investment) that in some situations (like Pakistan) may exceed 20 years.
3) Wind Energy.
Wind energy is undeniably one of the cleanest forms of
producing power from a renewable source. There is no pollution; there is no
burning of fossil fuels.
But it’s not like we can erect a wind turbine anywhere
and it will start generating power for us.
Fundamental factors:
Both
the speed and force of the wind are the essential deciding factors to determine
the available potential of a country or region for wind power.
For
example ,the North Sea region of Europe offers
the perfect opportunity to capitalize on the winds that come off of the sea and
for countries like UK, Belgium, Germany, Denmark and Poland etc. are all at the
ideal setting as the wind literally never stops blowing. They can use wind
power as their efficient source of Power which can be observed from the
following wind classes data of Europe.
It is considered on safe side to invest that wind should have
to be minimum 17mph strong to
produce energy efficiently in a wind turbine.
1 mile = 1604.344 meters
1 hr = 3600 sec
17 Mph= ( 1604.344 * 17 ) / 3600 = 7.576 m/s
Different regions have different wind speeds. We can gather the
available wind dynamics data from below mentioned link, to calculate roughly
how effective will be the wind of a particular region.
The
best site for wind in Asia are found in Taiwan, Japan and main land China.
In
view of the data of wind speed from above link, the potential of wind energy in
Pakistan is nominal but can be utilized by taking into account all the factors
have been mentioned.
Cost of commercial turbines:
Apart
from above essential factor, the other factors influence the cost of commercial
turbines are:
Ø
Location
where the wind turbine will be installed
Ø
Type
of wind turbine
Ø
Capacity
of wind turbine
Ø
Construction
of tower
Ø
Operational
cost
Ø
Maintenance
required
Ø
Warranty
period
Ø
Transportation
cost
Ø
Payback
period
Major
components of Wind Turbine Generators (various models and size ranges)
Related Video:
It
is reported that most of the wind energy is
available at high altitude so the developed counties where higher wind power is available have started
installing large capacity turbines.
Following Video
showing the delivery and erection of a large wind turbine tower and blades at
Haswell Moor.
Drawbacks:
Ø
Wind stops blowing and Its availability is variable, and
cannot be counted upon to fulfill consistent demand.
Ø For lesser windy regions, small turbines in large
number and huge farm lands are required to set up a wind mill.
Ø Constant threat for the birds due to the spinning blades specially to
the migrating birds.
.
Birds and Wind Turbines:
Ø Wind turbines are quite noisy.
Ø
As
per recent information, a wind turbine costs around 2
million dollars to install one megawatt capacity. This is comparatively higher
than other sources.
Wind Turbines Accidents:
Stronger wind is considered good for electricity production.
But the speed of wind should not be too strong or above 50 mph because it makes
turbines spin too fast and in this process it commits suicide.
Turbine blades get ripped off by stronger winds – excessive
heat damages the alternator.
Wind Turbine Blade Failure UK after a storm in Cornwall.
Turbine evidently hits tower caused by high
winds
Wind turbine suffers a brake failure and
collapses near Hornslet, Denmark
A wind turbine of $3 million, went on fire during the high winds
Hurricane in December 2011 near Ardrossan Scotland UK.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5KvJjI21i0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5KvJjI21i0
Because
of nominal wind potential in Pakistan,
it will require years & years to get some benefits of wind energy but may
loose investment in few hours of storm as mentioned below.
Cyclone Report Asifa Karachi by
Ulfat Bukhari 11 6 11
Dust Storm to Continue in Sindh & Baloachistan- 20 Mar 2012
(Options of Thar Coal utilization and Nuclear Energy
need to be discussed separately).
The objective of the ongoing discussion
is to reach a conclusion where to invest so that a below average or a low
income Pakistani could get long lasting benefits.
Suggestions:
Ø Fossil fuels are considered non-renewable resources because their
replenishment rate is extremely low relative to their consumption rate, due to
their millions of years of generation time as discussed above. However on going
Thar coal projects and Shale Gas reserves need to be expedited.
Ø
Currently
expansive Solar
energy does not permit Pakistan to take it on to the national grid; however the
private housing societies and luxury apartment schemes may be given incentives
to install solar panels at their own to promote the inflow of technology in
Pakistan.
Ø
As drastic advancements in Solar
technology are being introduced, for any Govt. Solar project, prior accepting
any bid , in-depth market survey of available
technologies may be carried out and supplier may be allowed on turnkey
basis with future maintenance warrantee.
Ø
In
view of the data of wind speed from the following link, the potential of wind energy in
Pakistan is nominal but can be utilized by taking into account all the factors
have been mentioned above.
Ø
We have vast Ocean and plenty of sunlight in Pakistan. We have
conditions to promote the algae technologies
in enormous areas at onshore and under Ocean the way like NASA which
doesn’t compete with agricultural land. By growing algae, the production of algae
bio-fuel can decrease the need for fossil fuels, and expensive foreign oil.
Ø
At
an early research stage for algae, Departments of Bio- Engineering and
Chemical Engineering of Various Engineering Universities of Pakistan may be
assigned this task as joint venture with Pakistan Navy for focusing on the physics, chemistry, and microbiology
of the process, to make it commercially viable energy source in Pakistan.
Ø
Pakistan
has a vast Ocean all along the Arabian sea. Expeditions may be organized in
conjunction with Pakistan Navy to
explore the Methane Hydrates in our legitimate
Oceans which might become a source of self sustain fuel supplies for the
industrial/ domestic use.
Ø However
the exploitation of available fossil fuels resources and production of renewable and clean energy,
may be considered as a part of our short term planning and will be insufficient to fulfill the
future needs of Pakistan. In order to
become a green and industrial prosperous country, a long lasting and
economically viable energy solution is to be sought out.
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